Picking Winners - Part 3

Lynch 在這章裡介紹了 P/E 的不同應用以比較股價平貴；

P/E 跟公司分類的關糸
P/E for a slower grower (7 to 9)
P/E for stalwart (10 to 14)
P/E for fast grower (14 - 20)

P/E 跟盈利增長的關糸
The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate of earnings. In general, a P/E ratio that's half the growth rate is very positive, and one that's twice the growth rate is very negative.

If the p/e of Coca-Cola is 15, you'd expect the company to be growing at about 15 percent a year, etc...

All esle being equaly, a 20-percent grower selling at 20 times earnings (p/e of 20) is a much better buy than a 10-percent grower selling at a p/e of 10.

P/E 跟盈利增長及派息的關糸
Find the long-term growth rate (says, Company X is 12 percent), add the dividend yield (Company X pays 3 percent), and divide by the p/e ratio (Company X is 10). 12 plus 3 divided by 10 is 1.5.

Less than a 1 is poor, and 1.5 is okay, but what you'r really looking for is a 2 or better.

Picking Winners - Part 2

Lynch 提出好公司(股)的十三個特質，有些特質似乎比較主觀，但也不防一一列出；

1. It sounds dull - simple business with a boring company name.
2. It does something dull.
3. It does something disagreeable (I interprete it as "something niche")
4. It's a spinoff (large companies do not want to spin off divisions and then see those spinoffs get into trouble) 比亞狄即將分拆手提電話部門，這會可是機會?
5. The institutions don't own it, and the analysts don't follow it.
6. The rumors around: It's involved with toxic waste and/or the Mafla.
7. There's something depressing about it. (Lynch quotes an example that provides funeral services)
8. The company that can acquire market shares in no-growth industry
9. It's got a niche (niches can be brand name, patent, location ...etc)
10. People have to keep buying its products/services.
11. It's a user of technology (productivity increase with lower cost of technology)
12. The insiders are buyers
13. The company is buying back shares

Picking Winners - Part 1

"Picking Winners" 這部份應該是這本書的重點，Lynch 指出一般人只要留意身邊事物，一樣可以發現出色的公司，這點和畢菲得的觀點相近，Lynch 更將一般公司分成六類；

1. Slow Growers 慢增長公司
2. Stalwarts 普通增長公司 (比GDP增長快少該，營利較穩定的大公司)
3. Fast Growers 快速增長公司
4. Cyclicals 循還增長公司
5. Turnarounds 復蘓公司
6. Asset Plays 折讓公司

一間公司可以由一類轉去第二類，投資者一定了解每間公司的分類。除了第一類，其他的也可以投資，不過 Fast Growers 長線可帶來最大的回報。

Preparing to Invest

"One Up on Wall Street" 這本書分三個主部份；
1. Preparing to Invest
2. Picking Winners
3. The Long-term View

"Preparing to Invest" 這部份主要介紹應有的投資概念及心態，可讀性不高，以下是這部份的一些扼要；

1. Don't overestimate the skill and wisdom of professionals.
2. Take advantage of what you already know.
3. Look for opportunities that haven't yet been discovered and certified by Wall Street.
4. Invest in companies, not in the stock market.
5. Ignore short-term fluctuations, predicting the short-term direction is futile.
6. Large loss or profits can be made in common stocks.
7. Predicting the economy is futile.
8. The average person is exposed to interesting local companies and products years before the professionals.

Personal Qualities it Takes to Succeed

今天開始做這本書的閱讀筆記。

(from 4. Passing the Mirror Test)

The ture contrarian is not the investor who takes the opposite side of a popular hot issue. The true contrarian waits for things to cool down and buys stocks that nobody cares about, and especially those that make Wall Street yawn.

...The trick is not to learn to trust your gut feelings, but rather to discipline yourself to ignore them. Stand by your stocks as long as the fundamental story of the company hasn't changed.

Patch Linux kernel with madwifi

以前 upgrade 完 kernel 要再 compile madwifi driver 先可行到 wireless。現在可先行 madwifi patch kernel，compile kernel 時同時製作 madwifi modules，install 完新 kernel 便即時可用到 wireless 咭。

Linux laptop_mode

為了使屋企部 server 更寧靜，之前用 noflush "spin down" 部硬碟，不過效果不是十分好，最近發現 kernel 2.16 設有 lap_mode 可提供 noflush 的功能，不過要先按裝 laptop_mode tool，幫助設定不同 settings。

要確定硬碟 status，可用 hdparm -C /dev/hda 查看。

下載 laptop_mode tool
http://www.xs4all.nl/~bsamwel/laptop_mode/tools/
hdparm Wiki
http://wiki.gentoo.tw/mediawiki/index.php/Hdparm

Linux Kernel In A Nutshell 下載

這是一本介紹 下載同customize Linux Kernel 的書，全書可在以下連結下載。
Linux Kernel in A Nutshell

匯豐０７年無準業績預測

匯豐融資公布第一季業績，盈利減少39%，至5.41億美元，主要是美國房地產市場轉弱影響按揭及其他信貸業務，貸款減值虧損上升96%至17億元。另外，匯豐銀行美國公布季度盈利下跌11%，至2.73億元，貸款減值虧損上升31%，達2.05億元。

以此估計，匯豐０７年無準業績預測

	06FY	07FY	YoY
North America	4,668	3,256	-30%
HK	5,182	5,700	10%
Europe	6,974	7,671	10%
Latin America	1,735	1,648	-5%
Asia and others	3,527	4,232	20%
Profit before tax	22,086	22,508	2%
Tax	(5,215)	(5,357)
Profit after tax	16,871	17,151	2%

資料來源
Q1 News RTHK
06FY 會計仔筆記

火焰雪山

在西貢 Corner Cafe 吃的甜品，F31fd 能準拍下當時的氣氛。
F31fd @ISO800 Auto WB, Auto AE
點擊圖片播放 F31 拍下的短片

Kaspersky Beta 7 下載

Kaspersky 已經推出 beta 7， 可在以下連結下載。

ftp://data.kaspersky.com
ID:kav2006
Password:Fynb02dbhec60

ftp://downloads1.kaspersky-labs.com/beta/kis7.0/english/