星期二, 8月 21, 2007
Beating the Street
看完這本書，覺得不如前一本書 "One Up on Walls Street"，大部份編幅都是以個案型式重複前書的論點，不過就沒有如前書有系統的組織，看過了前書的基本上可以不看此書。
星期二, 6月 05, 2007
The Long-term View - Summary
以下是這部份的一些扼要；
1. Market declines are great opportunities to buy stocks in companies you like.
2. Try to predict the direction of the market over one or two years is impossible.
3. The biggest winners are surprises (Lynch 也不能準確知道那間公司股價增長最快，所以要分散投資)
4. You can make serious money be compounding a series of 20-30 percent gains in stalwarts
5. Stalwarts with heavy institutional ownership and lots of Wall Street coverage that have outperformed the market and are overpriced are due for a rest or a decline.
6. Selling an outstanding fast grower because its stock seems slightly overpriced is a losing technique.
7. Don't become so attached to a winner that complacency sets in and you stop monitoring the story.
8. By careful pruning and rotation based on fundamentals, you can improve your results. When stocks are out of line with reality and better alternatives exist, sell them and switch into something else.
9. When favorable cards turn up, add your bet, and vice versa. (favorable card 應是指 story line, fundaments 而不是股價)
10. You don't have to "kiss all the girls." (Lynch 也會錯失機會，但他的投資組合也有十分好的成績)
1. Market declines are great opportunities to buy stocks in companies you like.
2. Try to predict the direction of the market over one or two years is impossible.
3. The biggest winners are surprises (Lynch 也不能準確知道那間公司股價增長最快，所以要分散投資)
4. You can make serious money be compounding a series of 20-30 percent gains in stalwarts
5. Stalwarts with heavy institutional ownership and lots of Wall Street coverage that have outperformed the market and are overpriced are due for a rest or a decline.
6. Selling an outstanding fast grower because its stock seems slightly overpriced is a losing technique.
7. Don't become so attached to a winner that complacency sets in and you stop monitoring the story.
8. By careful pruning and rotation based on fundamentals, you can improve your results. When stocks are out of line with reality and better alternatives exist, sell them and switch into something else.
9. When favorable cards turn up, add your bet, and vice versa. (favorable card 應是指 story line, fundaments 而不是股價)
10. You don't have to "kiss all the girls." (Lynch 也會錯失機會，但他的投資組合也有十分好的成績)
星期六, 6月 02, 2007
The Long-term View - When to Sell
Lynch 並不讚成依據巿况賣買股票，他提出可以跟據公司分類的不同情况賣出股票；
SLOW GROWER
1. When there's been a 30-50 percent appreciation.
2. When the fundamentals have deteriorated.
3. Lost market share for two consecutive years
4. No new products
STALWART
1. If the p/e strays too far beyound the normal range
2. No officers or directors have bought shares in the last year
3. A major division that contributes 25 percent of earnings is vulnerable to an economic slump tha's taking place.
4. The company's growth rate has been slowing down, and though it's been maintaining profits by cutting costs, future cost-cutting opportunities are limited.
CYCLICAL
1. Other than at the end of the cycle (who knows), the best time to sell a cyclical is when something has actually started to go wrong. Costs has started to rise. Existing plants are operating at full capacity. Inventories are building up.
2. Final demand for the product is slowing down.
3. The company has doubled its capital spending to build a fancy new plant.
4. p/e gets smaller near the end.
FAST GROWER
1. The trick is not to lose the potential tenbagger.
2. p/e gets bigger near the end.
3. Same store sales are down 3 percent in the last quarter.
4. New store results are disappointing.
5. Two top executives and serveral key employees leave to join a rival firm.
TURNAROUND
1. Debt rose significantly.
2. Inventories are rising twice the rate of sales growth.
3. The company's leading customer is suffering from a slowdown in its own sales
4. Sell after it's turned around or reclassify the stock.
ASSET PLAY
1. The best idea is to wait for the raider as long as the company isn't reducing the value of the assets.
2. The company will issue 10 percent more shares to help finance a diversification program.
3. Dvision that was expected to be sold for $20 million only brings $12 million in the actual sale.
SLOW GROWER
1. When there's been a 30-50 percent appreciation.
2. When the fundamentals have deteriorated.
3. Lost market share for two consecutive years
4. No new products
STALWART
1. If the p/e strays too far beyound the normal range
2. No officers or directors have bought shares in the last year
3. A major division that contributes 25 percent of earnings is vulnerable to an economic slump tha's taking place.
4. The company's growth rate has been slowing down, and though it's been maintaining profits by cutting costs, future cost-cutting opportunities are limited.
CYCLICAL
1. Other than at the end of the cycle (who knows), the best time to sell a cyclical is when something has actually started to go wrong. Costs has started to rise. Existing plants are operating at full capacity. Inventories are building up.
2. Final demand for the product is slowing down.
3. The company has doubled its capital spending to build a fancy new plant.
4. p/e gets smaller near the end.
FAST GROWER
1. The trick is not to lose the potential tenbagger.
2. p/e gets bigger near the end.
3. Same store sales are down 3 percent in the last quarter.
4. New store results are disappointing.
5. Two top executives and serveral key employees leave to join a rival firm.
TURNAROUND
1. Debt rose significantly.
2. Inventories are rising twice the rate of sales growth.
3. The company's leading customer is suffering from a slowdown in its own sales
4. Sell after it's turned around or reclassify the stock.
ASSET PLAY
1. The best idea is to wait for the raider as long as the company isn't reducing the value of the assets.
2. The company will issue 10 percent more shares to help finance a diversification program.
3. Dvision that was expected to be sold for $20 million only brings $12 million in the actual sale.
The Long-term View - Part 1
這部份主要介紹投資組合管理的概念，何時買入賣出，Lynch 並不贊成經常賣出買入，他賺最多的股票通常都持有三到四年。
Lynch 基本上贊成分散投資，他管理的基金就有超過一千間公司，對於小投資組合，他就認為可持有三至十間公司，他同時指出以下要點；
1. It's best to own as many stocks as there are situation in which: (a) you've got an edge: and (b) you've uncovered an exciting prospect that passes all the tests of research.
2. There's no use diversitying into unknown companies just for the sake of diversity.
3. If you are looking for tenbaggers, the more stocks you own the more likely that one of them will become tenbaggers.
4. The more stocks you own, the more flexibility you have to rotate funds between them.
5. Spreading your money among several categries of stocks is another way to minimize downside risk.
- slow growers are low-risk, low-gain
- stalwarts are low-risk, moderate gain
- cyclicals may be low-risk and high-gain or high-risk and low-gain, depending on how adept you are at anticipating cycles
- faster growers are high-risk, high-gain
- turnaround are high-risk, high-gain
6. A price drop in a good stock is only a tragedy if you sell at that price and never buy more. A price drop is an opportunity to load up on bargains.
7. detest "stop orders," those automatic bailouts at a predetermined price.
8. To rotate in and out of stocks depending on what has happended to the price as it relates to the story.
9. Rotate to other stalwart if a stalwart has gone up 40% and nothing wonderful has happened with the company.
10. Keep fast growers as long as earnings are growing and the expansion is continuing. Rotate to other fast grower if a fast grower's story begins to sound dubious or there's other better fast grower.
Lynch 基本上贊成分散投資，他管理的基金就有超過一千間公司，對於小投資組合，他就認為可持有三至十間公司，他同時指出以下要點；
1. It's best to own as many stocks as there are situation in which: (a) you've got an edge: and (b) you've uncovered an exciting prospect that passes all the tests of research.
2. There's no use diversitying into unknown companies just for the sake of diversity.
3. If you are looking for tenbaggers, the more stocks you own the more likely that one of them will become tenbaggers.
4. The more stocks you own, the more flexibility you have to rotate funds between them.
5. Spreading your money among several categries of stocks is another way to minimize downside risk.
- slow growers are low-risk, low-gain
- stalwarts are low-risk, moderate gain
- cyclicals may be low-risk and high-gain or high-risk and low-gain, depending on how adept you are at anticipating cycles
- faster growers are high-risk, high-gain
- turnaround are high-risk, high-gain
6. A price drop in a good stock is only a tragedy if you sell at that price and never buy more. A price drop is an opportunity to load up on bargains.
7. detest "stop orders," those automatic bailouts at a predetermined price.
8. To rotate in and out of stocks depending on what has happended to the price as it relates to the story.
9. Rotate to other stalwart if a stalwart has gone up 40% and nothing wonderful has happened with the company.
10. Keep fast growers as long as earnings are growing and the expansion is continuing. Rotate to other fast grower if a fast grower's story begins to sound dubious or there's other better fast grower.
星期五, 6月 01, 2007
Picking Winners - Part 5
Lynch 在這部份介紹了選擇公司的一些重點，以下是這部份的一些扼要；
1. Understand the nature of the companies you own and the specific reasons for holding the stock.
2. By putting your stocks into categories you'll have a better idea of what to expect from them.
3. Carefully consider the p/e ratio. If the stock is grossly over-priced, even if everything else goes right, you won't make any money.
4. Find a story line to follow as a way of monitoring a company's progress.
5. Look for small companies that are already profitable and have proven that their concept can be replicated.
6. Avoid hot stocks in hot industries.
7. It's better to miss the first move in a stock and wait to see if a company's plans are working out.
8. Moderately fast growers (20 to 25 percent) in nongrowth industries are ideal investments.
9. A lot of money can be made when a troubled company turns around.
10. Carefully consider the p/e ratio. If the stock is grossly over-priced, even if everything else goes right, you won't make any money.
11. Be patient. Watched stock never boils.
12. When in doubt, tune in later.
1. Understand the nature of the companies you own and the specific reasons for holding the stock.
2. By putting your stocks into categories you'll have a better idea of what to expect from them.
3. Carefully consider the p/e ratio. If the stock is grossly over-priced, even if everything else goes right, you won't make any money.
4. Find a story line to follow as a way of monitoring a company's progress.
5. Look for small companies that are already profitable and have proven that their concept can be replicated.
6. Avoid hot stocks in hot industries.
7. It's better to miss the first move in a stock and wait to see if a company's plans are working out.
8. Moderately fast growers (20 to 25 percent) in nongrowth industries are ideal investments.
9. A lot of money can be made when a troubled company turns around.
10. Carefully consider the p/e ratio. If the stock is grossly over-priced, even if everything else goes right, you won't make any money.
11. Be patient. Watched stock never boils.
12. When in doubt, tune in later.
Picking Winners - Part 4
每一類公司要留意的地方；
STALWARTS
1. The key issue is price, and the p/e ratio will tell you whether you are paying too much.
2. Check the company's long term growth rate, and whether it has kept up the same momentum in recent years.
3. See how the company has fared during previous recessions and market drops.
CYCLICALS
1. Keep a close watch on inventories, and the supply-demand relationship. Watch for new entrants which is usually a dangerous development.
2. Anticipate a shrinking p/e multiple over time as business recovers and investors look ahead of the end of cycle, when peak earnings are achieved.
FAST GROWERS
1. What the growth rate in earnings has been in recent years. (Lynch's favourites are the ones in the 20 to 25 percent range. Company growing faster than 25% normally found in hot industries)
2. The company has duplicated its successes in more than one city or town, to prove that expansion will work.
3. The company still has room to grow.
4. Whether the stock is selling at a p/e ratio at or near the growth rate.
TURNAROUND
1. Can the company survive a raid by its creditors?
2. How is the company supposed to be turning around?
ASSEST PLAYS
1. What's the value of the assets? Are there any hidden assets?
2. Is the company taking on new debt, making the assets less valuable?
STALWARTS
1. The key issue is price, and the p/e ratio will tell you whether you are paying too much.
2. Check the company's long term growth rate, and whether it has kept up the same momentum in recent years.
3. See how the company has fared during previous recessions and market drops.
CYCLICALS
1. Keep a close watch on inventories, and the supply-demand relationship. Watch for new entrants which is usually a dangerous development.
2. Anticipate a shrinking p/e multiple over time as business recovers and investors look ahead of the end of cycle, when peak earnings are achieved.
FAST GROWERS
1. What the growth rate in earnings has been in recent years. (Lynch's favourites are the ones in the 20 to 25 percent range. Company growing faster than 25% normally found in hot industries)
2. The company has duplicated its successes in more than one city or town, to prove that expansion will work.
3. The company still has room to grow.
4. Whether the stock is selling at a p/e ratio at or near the growth rate.
TURNAROUND
1. Can the company survive a raid by its creditors?
2. How is the company supposed to be turning around?
ASSEST PLAYS
1. What's the value of the assets? Are there any hidden assets?
2. Is the company taking on new debt, making the assets less valuable?
星期二, 5月 29, 2007
Picking Winners - Part 3
Lynch 在這章裡介紹了 P/E 的不同應用以比較股價平貴；
P/E 跟公司分類的關糸
P/E for a slower grower (7 to 9)
P/E for stalwart (10 to 14)
P/E for fast grower (14 - 20)
P/E 跟盈利增長的關糸
The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate of earnings. In general, a P/E ratio that's half the growth rate is very positive, and one that's twice the growth rate is very negative.
If the p/e of Coca-Cola is 15, you'd expect the company to be growing at about 15 percent a year, etc...
All esle being equaly, a 20-percent grower selling at 20 times earnings (p/e of 20) is a much better buy than a 10-percent grower selling at a p/e of 10.
P/E 跟盈利增長及派息的關糸
Find the long-term growth rate (says, Company X is 12 percent), add the dividend yield (Company X pays 3 percent), and divide by the p/e ratio (Company X is 10). 12 plus 3 divided by 10 is 1.5.
Less than a 1 is poor, and 1.5 is okay, but what you'r really looking for is a 2 or better.
P/E 跟公司分類的關糸
P/E for a slower grower (7 to 9)
P/E for stalwart (10 to 14)
P/E for fast grower (14 - 20)
P/E 跟盈利增長的關糸
The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate of earnings. In general, a P/E ratio that's half the growth rate is very positive, and one that's twice the growth rate is very negative.
If the p/e of Coca-Cola is 15, you'd expect the company to be growing at about 15 percent a year, etc...
All esle being equaly, a 20-percent grower selling at 20 times earnings (p/e of 20) is a much better buy than a 10-percent grower selling at a p/e of 10.
P/E 跟盈利增長及派息的關糸
Find the long-term growth rate (says, Company X is 12 percent), add the dividend yield (Company X pays 3 percent), and divide by the p/e ratio (Company X is 10). 12 plus 3 divided by 10 is 1.5.
Less than a 1 is poor, and 1.5 is okay, but what you'r really looking for is a 2 or better.
星期一, 5月 28, 2007
Picking Winners - Part 2
Lynch 提出好公司(股)的十三個特質，有些特質似乎比較主觀，但也不防一一列出；
1. It sounds dull - simple business with a boring company name.
2. It does something dull.
3. It does something disagreeable (I interprete it as "something niche")
4. It's a spinoff (large companies do not want to spin off divisions and then see those spinoffs get into trouble) 比亞狄即將分拆手提電話部門，這會可是機會?
5. The institutions don't own it, and the analysts don't follow it.
6. The rumors around: It's involved with toxic waste and/or the Mafla.
7. There's something depressing about it. (Lynch quotes an example that provides funeral services)
8. The company that can acquire market shares in no-growth industry
9. It's got a niche (niches can be brand name, patent, location ...etc)
10. People have to keep buying its products/services.
11. It's a user of technology (productivity increase with lower cost of technology)
12. The insiders are buyers
13. The company is buying back shares
1. It sounds dull - simple business with a boring company name.
2. It does something dull.
3. It does something disagreeable (I interprete it as "something niche")
4. It's a spinoff (large companies do not want to spin off divisions and then see those spinoffs get into trouble) 比亞狄即將分拆手提電話部門，這會可是機會?
5. The institutions don't own it, and the analysts don't follow it.
6. The rumors around: It's involved with toxic waste and/or the Mafla.
7. There's something depressing about it. (Lynch quotes an example that provides funeral services)
8. The company that can acquire market shares in no-growth industry
9. It's got a niche (niches can be brand name, patent, location ...etc)
10. People have to keep buying its products/services.
11. It's a user of technology (productivity increase with lower cost of technology)
12. The insiders are buyers
13. The company is buying back shares
星期六, 5月 26, 2007
Picking Winners - Part 1
"Picking Winners" 這部份應該是這本書的重點，Lynch 指出一般人只要留意身邊事物，一樣可以發現出色的公司，這點和畢菲得的觀點相近，Lynch 更將一般公司分成六類；
1. Slow Growers 慢增長公司
2. Stalwarts 普通增長公司 (比GDP增長快少該，營利較穩定的大公司)
3. Fast Growers 快速增長公司
4. Cyclicals 循還增長公司
5. Turnarounds 復蘓公司
6. Asset Plays 折讓公司
一間公司可以由一類轉去第二類，投資者一定了解每間公司的分類。除了第一類，其他的也可以投資，不過 Fast Growers 長線可帶來最大的回報。
1. Slow Growers 慢增長公司
2. Stalwarts 普通增長公司 (比GDP增長快少該，營利較穩定的大公司)
3. Fast Growers 快速增長公司
4. Cyclicals 循還增長公司
5. Turnarounds 復蘓公司
6. Asset Plays 折讓公司
一間公司可以由一類轉去第二類，投資者一定了解每間公司的分類。除了第一類，其他的也可以投資，不過 Fast Growers 長線可帶來最大的回報。
星期三, 5月 23, 2007
Preparing to Invest
"One Up on Wall Street" 這本書分三個主部份；
1. Preparing to Invest
2. Picking Winners
3. The Long-term View
"Preparing to Invest" 這部份主要介紹應有的投資概念及心態，可讀性不高，以下是這部份的一些扼要；
1. Don't overestimate the skill and wisdom of professionals.
2. Take advantage of what you already know.
3. Look for opportunities that haven't yet been discovered and certified by Wall Street.
4. Invest in companies, not in the stock market.
5. Ignore short-term fluctuations, predicting the short-term direction is futile.
6. Large loss or profits can be made in common stocks.
7. Predicting the economy is futile.
8. The average person is exposed to interesting local companies and products years before the professionals.
1. Preparing to Invest
2. Picking Winners
3. The Long-term View
"Preparing to Invest" 這部份主要介紹應有的投資概念及心態，可讀性不高，以下是這部份的一些扼要；
1. Don't overestimate the skill and wisdom of professionals.
2. Take advantage of what you already know.
3. Look for opportunities that haven't yet been discovered and certified by Wall Street.
4. Invest in companies, not in the stock market.
5. Ignore short-term fluctuations, predicting the short-term direction is futile.
6. Large loss or profits can be made in common stocks.
7. Predicting the economy is futile.
8. The average person is exposed to interesting local companies and products years before the professionals.
星期二, 5月 22, 2007
Personal Qualities it Takes to Succeed
今天開始做這本書的閱讀筆記。
(from 4. Passing the Mirror Test)
The ture contrarian is not the investor who takes the opposite side of a popular hot issue. The true contrarian waits for things to cool down and buys stocks that nobody cares about, and especially those that make Wall Street yawn.
...The trick is not to learn to trust your gut feelings, but rather to discipline yourself to ignore them. Stand by your stocks as long as the fundamental story of the company hasn't changed.
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