香港政府經常說沒有錢增加醫療開支，現在一年的醫療開支是三百億左右。政府有錢一年增加五十多億已徧高的公務員人工，再每年加增薪點，再每三年檢討加薪，難怪冇錢加醫療開支，因為有錢都先益自己，有剩至留番少少比你。
所以我之前一直反對銷售稅，就算星加坡得，香港有這樣愚民以自肥的政府，銷售稅只會養肥一班『吞象』公務員；新加坡政府部長以及公務員曾經在2001至2003年經濟差時共削減薪金的24-29%，香港公務員可以嗎？歷史已證明他們是不能的。
星期五, 6月 08, 2007
真有司法獨立嗎?
這是今天林行止專欄一部份的節錄；
"吳邦國把《基本法》解釋為「中國授予香港多少權力香港就有多少權力」的「授權法」，對於人生目的在求溫飽和牟利，視民主選舉、政治權利「有則最佳無亦何妨」...... 因此，從現實角度─包括長期殖民教育下香港人大都沒有政治理想、....... 至於名義上仍獨立於行政機關的司法部門，在遇到關係國家利益問題時，最終可能也不得不聽命於直接接受北京指示的行政長官，無法作出獨立判決！英國留給香港最寶貴的法制已有名無實，這是自由香港輾轉淪落的開始。"
甚麼是"政治理想"，"政治理想"通常都是政客扇動群众奪取權力的一種口號，我們可否以更具体的語言來說明想爭取的東西，我一向視民主選舉為工具，事實上香港人要爭取應該是；社會自由、繁榮、公平、法治、及尊重個人。
換一個角度看，林先生也是『長期殖民教育下香港人』之一，在英國主子的長期燻途下，英國人說的司法獨立在遇到關係國家利益問題時也是神聖不可侵犯，事實上英美也是講一套做一套，甚至不在遇到關係國家利益而只是遇到當權者和軍火商利益時，司法便不再獨立，以下是今日的另一新聞；
英軍火商155億賄沙特親王 國家安全理由 貝理雅拒再查
《經濟日報綜合報道》英國軍火醜聞愈揭愈臭，國內最大軍火公司英國航太系統公司（BAE Systems）被揭在過去20年，以高達10億英鎊（約155億港元）賄賂曾任沙特阿拉伯駐美國大使的班達爾˙本˙蘇丹親王（Prince Bandar bin Sultan），換取實現價值400億英鎊（約6,192億港元）的軍火交易。
由於事件涉及長達至少10年的非法利益輸送，令牽涉其中的英國、美國及沙特阿拉伯、英國前保守黨政府及現任工黨政府陷入尷尬局面。目前身在德國參加八國峰會的英國首相貝理雅，再次以國家安全及保住數千名受僱於BAE工人飯碗為由，堅拒重新展開調查。
....... 英美國家元首包括戴卓爾夫人（Margaret Thatcher）、貝理雅、及美國已故總統列根（Ronald Reagan）對此完全知情。
....... 正當英國「嚴重欺詐辦公室」（Serious Fraud Office）調查上述軍火交易發現懷疑非法賄款之際，去年12月，司法部長戈德史密斯（Lord Goldsmith）勒令終止了調查，惹來各方的抨擊。
英國廣播公司商業新聞編輯Robert Peston在網誌中作出分析，更引述消息人士指出，涉案各方均不認為付出及收受回佣有問題，但非常擔心事件曝光會令沙特反感，影響下周BAE與沙特簽署價值200億英鎊（約3,096億港元）戰機定單。
"吳邦國把《基本法》解釋為「中國授予香港多少權力香港就有多少權力」的「授權法」，對於人生目的在求溫飽和牟利，視民主選舉、政治權利「有則最佳無亦何妨」...... 因此，從現實角度─包括長期殖民教育下香港人大都沒有政治理想、....... 至於名義上仍獨立於行政機關的司法部門，在遇到關係國家利益問題時，最終可能也不得不聽命於直接接受北京指示的行政長官，無法作出獨立判決！英國留給香港最寶貴的法制已有名無實，這是自由香港輾轉淪落的開始。"
甚麼是"政治理想"，"政治理想"通常都是政客扇動群众奪取權力的一種口號，我們可否以更具体的語言來說明想爭取的東西，我一向視民主選舉為工具，事實上香港人要爭取應該是；社會自由、繁榮、公平、法治、及尊重個人。
換一個角度看，林先生也是『長期殖民教育下香港人』之一，在英國主子的長期燻途下，英國人說的司法獨立在遇到關係國家利益問題時也是神聖不可侵犯，事實上英美也是講一套做一套，甚至不在遇到關係國家利益而只是遇到當權者和軍火商利益時，司法便不再獨立，以下是今日的另一新聞；
英軍火商155億賄沙特親王 國家安全理由 貝理雅拒再查
《經濟日報綜合報道》英國軍火醜聞愈揭愈臭，國內最大軍火公司英國航太系統公司（BAE Systems）被揭在過去20年，以高達10億英鎊（約155億港元）賄賂曾任沙特阿拉伯駐美國大使的班達爾˙本˙蘇丹親王（Prince Bandar bin Sultan），換取實現價值400億英鎊（約6,192億港元）的軍火交易。
由於事件涉及長達至少10年的非法利益輸送，令牽涉其中的英國、美國及沙特阿拉伯、英國前保守黨政府及現任工黨政府陷入尷尬局面。目前身在德國參加八國峰會的英國首相貝理雅，再次以國家安全及保住數千名受僱於BAE工人飯碗為由，堅拒重新展開調查。
....... 英美國家元首包括戴卓爾夫人（Margaret Thatcher）、貝理雅、及美國已故總統列根（Ronald Reagan）對此完全知情。
....... 正當英國「嚴重欺詐辦公室」（Serious Fraud Office）調查上述軍火交易發現懷疑非法賄款之際，去年12月，司法部長戈德史密斯（Lord Goldsmith）勒令終止了調查，惹來各方的抨擊。
英國廣播公司商業新聞編輯Robert Peston在網誌中作出分析，更引述消息人士指出，涉案各方均不認為付出及收受回佣有問題，但非常擔心事件曝光會令沙特反感，影響下周BAE與沙特簽署價值200億英鎊（約3,096億港元）戰機定單。
星期二, 6月 05, 2007
The Long-term View - Summary
以下是這部份的一些扼要；
1. Market declines are great opportunities to buy stocks in companies you like.
2. Try to predict the direction of the market over one or two years is impossible.
3. The biggest winners are surprises (Lynch 也不能準確知道那間公司股價增長最快，所以要分散投資)
4. You can make serious money be compounding a series of 20-30 percent gains in stalwarts
5. Stalwarts with heavy institutional ownership and lots of Wall Street coverage that have outperformed the market and are overpriced are due for a rest or a decline.
6. Selling an outstanding fast grower because its stock seems slightly overpriced is a losing technique.
7. Don't become so attached to a winner that complacency sets in and you stop monitoring the story.
8. By careful pruning and rotation based on fundamentals, you can improve your results. When stocks are out of line with reality and better alternatives exist, sell them and switch into something else.
9. When favorable cards turn up, add your bet, and vice versa. (favorable card 應是指 story line, fundaments 而不是股價)
10. You don't have to "kiss all the girls." (Lynch 也會錯失機會，但他的投資組合也有十分好的成績)
1. Market declines are great opportunities to buy stocks in companies you like.
2. Try to predict the direction of the market over one or two years is impossible.
3. The biggest winners are surprises (Lynch 也不能準確知道那間公司股價增長最快，所以要分散投資)
4. You can make serious money be compounding a series of 20-30 percent gains in stalwarts
5. Stalwarts with heavy institutional ownership and lots of Wall Street coverage that have outperformed the market and are overpriced are due for a rest or a decline.
6. Selling an outstanding fast grower because its stock seems slightly overpriced is a losing technique.
7. Don't become so attached to a winner that complacency sets in and you stop monitoring the story.
8. By careful pruning and rotation based on fundamentals, you can improve your results. When stocks are out of line with reality and better alternatives exist, sell them and switch into something else.
9. When favorable cards turn up, add your bet, and vice versa. (favorable card 應是指 story line, fundaments 而不是股價)
10. You don't have to "kiss all the girls." (Lynch 也會錯失機會，但他的投資組合也有十分好的成績)
星期一, 6月 04, 2007
星期六, 6月 02, 2007
The Long-term View - When to Sell
Lynch 並不讚成依據巿况賣買股票，他提出可以跟據公司分類的不同情况賣出股票；
SLOW GROWER
1. When there's been a 30-50 percent appreciation.
2. When the fundamentals have deteriorated.
3. Lost market share for two consecutive years
4. No new products
STALWART
1. If the p/e strays too far beyound the normal range
2. No officers or directors have bought shares in the last year
3. A major division that contributes 25 percent of earnings is vulnerable to an economic slump tha's taking place.
4. The company's growth rate has been slowing down, and though it's been maintaining profits by cutting costs, future cost-cutting opportunities are limited.
CYCLICAL
1. Other than at the end of the cycle (who knows), the best time to sell a cyclical is when something has actually started to go wrong. Costs has started to rise. Existing plants are operating at full capacity. Inventories are building up.
2. Final demand for the product is slowing down.
3. The company has doubled its capital spending to build a fancy new plant.
4. p/e gets smaller near the end.
FAST GROWER
1. The trick is not to lose the potential tenbagger.
2. p/e gets bigger near the end.
3. Same store sales are down 3 percent in the last quarter.
4. New store results are disappointing.
5. Two top executives and serveral key employees leave to join a rival firm.
TURNAROUND
1. Debt rose significantly.
2. Inventories are rising twice the rate of sales growth.
3. The company's leading customer is suffering from a slowdown in its own sales
4. Sell after it's turned around or reclassify the stock.
ASSET PLAY
1. The best idea is to wait for the raider as long as the company isn't reducing the value of the assets.
2. The company will issue 10 percent more shares to help finance a diversification program.
3. Dvision that was expected to be sold for $20 million only brings $12 million in the actual sale.
SLOW GROWER
1. When there's been a 30-50 percent appreciation.
2. When the fundamentals have deteriorated.
3. Lost market share for two consecutive years
4. No new products
STALWART
1. If the p/e strays too far beyound the normal range
2. No officers or directors have bought shares in the last year
3. A major division that contributes 25 percent of earnings is vulnerable to an economic slump tha's taking place.
4. The company's growth rate has been slowing down, and though it's been maintaining profits by cutting costs, future cost-cutting opportunities are limited.
CYCLICAL
1. Other than at the end of the cycle (who knows), the best time to sell a cyclical is when something has actually started to go wrong. Costs has started to rise. Existing plants are operating at full capacity. Inventories are building up.
2. Final demand for the product is slowing down.
3. The company has doubled its capital spending to build a fancy new plant.
4. p/e gets smaller near the end.
FAST GROWER
1. The trick is not to lose the potential tenbagger.
2. p/e gets bigger near the end.
3. Same store sales are down 3 percent in the last quarter.
4. New store results are disappointing.
5. Two top executives and serveral key employees leave to join a rival firm.
TURNAROUND
1. Debt rose significantly.
2. Inventories are rising twice the rate of sales growth.
3. The company's leading customer is suffering from a slowdown in its own sales
4. Sell after it's turned around or reclassify the stock.
ASSET PLAY
1. The best idea is to wait for the raider as long as the company isn't reducing the value of the assets.
2. The company will issue 10 percent more shares to help finance a diversification program.
3. Dvision that was expected to be sold for $20 million only brings $12 million in the actual sale.
The Long-term View - Part 1
這部份主要介紹投資組合管理的概念，何時買入賣出，Lynch 並不贊成經常賣出買入，他賺最多的股票通常都持有三到四年。
Lynch 基本上贊成分散投資，他管理的基金就有超過一千間公司，對於小投資組合，他就認為可持有三至十間公司，他同時指出以下要點；
1. It's best to own as many stocks as there are situation in which: (a) you've got an edge: and (b) you've uncovered an exciting prospect that passes all the tests of research.
2. There's no use diversitying into unknown companies just for the sake of diversity.
3. If you are looking for tenbaggers, the more stocks you own the more likely that one of them will become tenbaggers.
4. The more stocks you own, the more flexibility you have to rotate funds between them.
5. Spreading your money among several categries of stocks is another way to minimize downside risk.
- slow growers are low-risk, low-gain
- stalwarts are low-risk, moderate gain
- cyclicals may be low-risk and high-gain or high-risk and low-gain, depending on how adept you are at anticipating cycles
- faster growers are high-risk, high-gain
- turnaround are high-risk, high-gain
6. A price drop in a good stock is only a tragedy if you sell at that price and never buy more. A price drop is an opportunity to load up on bargains.
7. detest "stop orders," those automatic bailouts at a predetermined price.
8. To rotate in and out of stocks depending on what has happended to the price as it relates to the story.
9. Rotate to other stalwart if a stalwart has gone up 40% and nothing wonderful has happened with the company.
10. Keep fast growers as long as earnings are growing and the expansion is continuing. Rotate to other fast grower if a fast grower's story begins to sound dubious or there's other better fast grower.
Lynch 基本上贊成分散投資，他管理的基金就有超過一千間公司，對於小投資組合，他就認為可持有三至十間公司，他同時指出以下要點；
1. It's best to own as many stocks as there are situation in which: (a) you've got an edge: and (b) you've uncovered an exciting prospect that passes all the tests of research.
2. There's no use diversitying into unknown companies just for the sake of diversity.
3. If you are looking for tenbaggers, the more stocks you own the more likely that one of them will become tenbaggers.
4. The more stocks you own, the more flexibility you have to rotate funds between them.
5. Spreading your money among several categries of stocks is another way to minimize downside risk.
- slow growers are low-risk, low-gain
- stalwarts are low-risk, moderate gain
- cyclicals may be low-risk and high-gain or high-risk and low-gain, depending on how adept you are at anticipating cycles
- faster growers are high-risk, high-gain
- turnaround are high-risk, high-gain
6. A price drop in a good stock is only a tragedy if you sell at that price and never buy more. A price drop is an opportunity to load up on bargains.
7. detest "stop orders," those automatic bailouts at a predetermined price.
8. To rotate in and out of stocks depending on what has happended to the price as it relates to the story.
9. Rotate to other stalwart if a stalwart has gone up 40% and nothing wonderful has happened with the company.
10. Keep fast growers as long as earnings are growing and the expansion is continuing. Rotate to other fast grower if a fast grower's story begins to sound dubious or there's other better fast grower.
星期五, 6月 01, 2007
Picking Winners - Part 5
Lynch 在這部份介紹了選擇公司的一些重點，以下是這部份的一些扼要；
1. Understand the nature of the companies you own and the specific reasons for holding the stock.
2. By putting your stocks into categories you'll have a better idea of what to expect from them.
3. Carefully consider the p/e ratio. If the stock is grossly over-priced, even if everything else goes right, you won't make any money.
4. Find a story line to follow as a way of monitoring a company's progress.
5. Look for small companies that are already profitable and have proven that their concept can be replicated.
6. Avoid hot stocks in hot industries.
7. It's better to miss the first move in a stock and wait to see if a company's plans are working out.
8. Moderately fast growers (20 to 25 percent) in nongrowth industries are ideal investments.
9. A lot of money can be made when a troubled company turns around.
10. Carefully consider the p/e ratio. If the stock is grossly over-priced, even if everything else goes right, you won't make any money.
11. Be patient. Watched stock never boils.
12. When in doubt, tune in later.
1. Understand the nature of the companies you own and the specific reasons for holding the stock.
2. By putting your stocks into categories you'll have a better idea of what to expect from them.
3. Carefully consider the p/e ratio. If the stock is grossly over-priced, even if everything else goes right, you won't make any money.
4. Find a story line to follow as a way of monitoring a company's progress.
5. Look for small companies that are already profitable and have proven that their concept can be replicated.
6. Avoid hot stocks in hot industries.
7. It's better to miss the first move in a stock and wait to see if a company's plans are working out.
8. Moderately fast growers (20 to 25 percent) in nongrowth industries are ideal investments.
9. A lot of money can be made when a troubled company turns around.
10. Carefully consider the p/e ratio. If the stock is grossly over-priced, even if everything else goes right, you won't make any money.
11. Be patient. Watched stock never boils.
12. When in doubt, tune in later.
Picking Winners - Part 4
每一類公司要留意的地方；
STALWARTS
1. The key issue is price, and the p/e ratio will tell you whether you are paying too much.
2. Check the company's long term growth rate, and whether it has kept up the same momentum in recent years.
3. See how the company has fared during previous recessions and market drops.
CYCLICALS
1. Keep a close watch on inventories, and the supply-demand relationship. Watch for new entrants which is usually a dangerous development.
2. Anticipate a shrinking p/e multiple over time as business recovers and investors look ahead of the end of cycle, when peak earnings are achieved.
FAST GROWERS
1. What the growth rate in earnings has been in recent years. (Lynch's favourites are the ones in the 20 to 25 percent range. Company growing faster than 25% normally found in hot industries)
2. The company has duplicated its successes in more than one city or town, to prove that expansion will work.
3. The company still has room to grow.
4. Whether the stock is selling at a p/e ratio at or near the growth rate.
TURNAROUND
1. Can the company survive a raid by its creditors?
2. How is the company supposed to be turning around?
ASSEST PLAYS
1. What's the value of the assets? Are there any hidden assets?
2. Is the company taking on new debt, making the assets less valuable?
STALWARTS
1. The key issue is price, and the p/e ratio will tell you whether you are paying too much.
2. Check the company's long term growth rate, and whether it has kept up the same momentum in recent years.
3. See how the company has fared during previous recessions and market drops.
CYCLICALS
1. Keep a close watch on inventories, and the supply-demand relationship. Watch for new entrants which is usually a dangerous development.
2. Anticipate a shrinking p/e multiple over time as business recovers and investors look ahead of the end of cycle, when peak earnings are achieved.
FAST GROWERS
1. What the growth rate in earnings has been in recent years. (Lynch's favourites are the ones in the 20 to 25 percent range. Company growing faster than 25% normally found in hot industries)
2. The company has duplicated its successes in more than one city or town, to prove that expansion will work.
3. The company still has room to grow.
4. Whether the stock is selling at a p/e ratio at or near the growth rate.
TURNAROUND
1. Can the company survive a raid by its creditors?
2. How is the company supposed to be turning around?
ASSEST PLAYS
1. What's the value of the assets? Are there any hidden assets?
2. Is the company taking on new debt, making the assets less valuable?
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