星期六, 6月 02, 2007

The Long-term View - Part 1

這部份主要介紹投資組合管理的概念,何時買入賣出,Lynch 並不贊成經常賣出買入,他賺最多的股票通常都持有三到四年。

Lynch 基本上贊成分散投資,他管理的基金就有超過一千間公司,對於小投資組合,他就認為可持有三至十間公司,他同時指出以下要點;
1. It's best to own as many stocks as there are situation in which: (a) you've got an edge: and (b) you've uncovered an exciting prospect that passes all the tests of research.
2. There's no use diversitying into unknown companies just for the sake of diversity.
3. If you are looking for tenbaggers, the more stocks you own the more likely that one of them will become tenbaggers.
4. The more stocks you own, the more flexibility you have to rotate funds between them.
5. Spreading your money among several categries of stocks is another way to minimize downside risk.
- slow growers are low-risk, low-gain
- stalwarts are low-risk, moderate gain
- cyclicals may be low-risk and high-gain or high-risk and low-gain, depending on how adept you are at anticipating cycles
- faster growers are high-risk, high-gain
- turnaround are high-risk, high-gain
6. A price drop in a good stock is only a tragedy if you sell at that price and never buy more. A price drop is an opportunity to load up on bargains.
7. detest "stop orders," those automatic bailouts at a predetermined price.
8. To rotate in and out of stocks depending on what has happended to the price as it relates to the story.
9. Rotate to other stalwart if a stalwart has gone up 40% and nothing wonderful has happened with the company.
10. Keep fast growers as long as earnings are growing and the expansion is continuing. Rotate to other fast grower if a fast grower's story begins to sound dubious or there's other better fast grower.

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