香港社會對吳邦國的言論還在爭論不休，我不反對一國為先、兩制為後，也不反對行政主導，可是對他三權分立的言論就不敢茍同，只怕他心中所想的制度會變成行政獨栽而不是行政主導。
內地對現時地方政府的一把手獨攬大權也開始發覺間題，內地應該是借鏡香港的制度，解決地方政府腐敗問題。事實上三權分立與行政主導並不一定會產生矛盾，憲法給予政府行政機構主導政府運作、草議法例及製定政策的權力，同時也讓議會監察行政機構、法院執行法律以防止政府濫用權力、殘民自肥。
我認為現時香港施政寸步難行不是因為三權分立，而是行政機構效率低下及部份立法會議員希望奪取政策製定權的結果。
星期日, 6月 17, 2007
西方政府並不可靠
西方對民主的執著在他們國內可能是對自由人權信念的追求，但對外『民主口號』只是西方利益的工具，用來取代或配合軍隊以奪取海外資源、增加政治影响力及軍事實力。這是今天明報的一編文章；
『前所未聞的民運政府「政變」
首先我們要求巴勒斯坦人擁抱民主，但他們卻選出哈馬斯；然後，哈馬斯打贏一場小規模內戰，並控制加沙，但我們西方仍是只想跟聲名掃地的巴人自治政府主席阿巴斯談判。今天的巴勒斯坦有兩個總理，我們該跟誰談判呢？
當然，我們應該數月前便跟哈馬斯談判。但我們西方卻不喜歡由巴人民主選出來的政府。巴人「應該」選出腐敗的法塔赫，但他們卻選出拒絕承認以色列及奧斯陸和議的哈馬斯。
然而， 我們要求哈馬斯承認的「以色列」，究竟是指什麼？1948 年的以色列？1967 中東戰爭後的以色列？還是那個在阿拉伯土地上興建猶太殖民區、並佔領巴勒斯坦22%土地的以色列？
巴人高官廁所竟有金水龍頭
阿巴斯被西方傳媒稱為「溫和」領袖，一直是西方忠實的「警察」。他寫了一部600頁關於1993 年奧斯陸和議的著作，當中可以隻字不提「（以色列）佔領」。他是我們西方可信任的「領袖」，因為他結領帶、出入白宮，言談總是「啱聽」。
巴人選出哈馬斯捨棄法塔赫，並非因為他們要成立伊斯蘭共和國，而是因為厭倦腐敗的法塔赫及巴人自治政府。多年前，我在一名巴人自治政府官員寓所洗手間內看到鑲金水龍頭，正是那些鑲金水龍頭令法塔赫輸掉選舉。腐敗一直是阿拉伯世界的腫瘤，巴人希望終止它，才投哈馬斯一票。但我們「智慧絕頂」、「善良絕頂」的西方，卻因他們行使投票權而決定制裁他們、令他們捱餓。或者，我們該賞賜巴勒斯坦一個歐盟會籍，好讓他們選出適當的人選？
同樣的故事在區內不斷上演。就算阿富汗總統卡爾扎伊政府養着軍閥及毒䲷，我們仍然支持他。埃及總統穆巴拉克的劊子手向穆斯林兄弟會政要施酷刑，但我們對他情有獨鍾。利比亞卡扎菲派出爪牙到國外行刺反對者，但因為現時他在「反恐戰」中跟西方同一陣線，所以我們欣然接受其「民主」。約旦君主專制國王阿卜杜拉，以至波斯灣所有王子和酋長都受到我們歡迎，尤其是那些收取西方軍火商巨額賄賂的。若阿拉伯百姓及伊朗人能夠支持「我們的」國王及王子，那中東就容易控制得多。
一言蔽之，關鍵就在於控制。這亦是為何一些領袖會得到我們支持，一些則遭我們捨棄。現在加沙已屬於哈馬斯，那西方該如何？跟那些「恩將仇報」的巴人談判？還是僅承認西岸的巴勒斯坦，而漠視加沙民選的哈馬斯？
為何老是不受「文明西方」控制？
在西方眼中，若敘利亞總統不是阿薩德、伊朗總統不是內賈德、黎巴嫩就像我們那些後院民主小國如比利時和盧森堡，那就好了，但那些中東人卻老是選出「錯誤」的人、喜歡「錯誤」的人，行事一點也一不像我們這些「文明的西方人」。那我們該怎辦？支持（以軍）重新佔領加沙？可以肯定，我們不會批評以色列啊！我們會繼續支持那些國王、總統，直至整個地區在我們眼前爆破，然後我們會說：他們不值得我們犧牲及愛護，一如我們現在提及伊拉克人所說的一樣。
我們該如何處理一個民選政府發動的「政變」？英國《獨立報》資深中東問題記者
Robert Fisk』
『前所未聞的民運政府「政變」
首先我們要求巴勒斯坦人擁抱民主，但他們卻選出哈馬斯；然後，哈馬斯打贏一場小規模內戰，並控制加沙，但我們西方仍是只想跟聲名掃地的巴人自治政府主席阿巴斯談判。今天的巴勒斯坦有兩個總理，我們該跟誰談判呢？
當然，我們應該數月前便跟哈馬斯談判。但我們西方卻不喜歡由巴人民主選出來的政府。巴人「應該」選出腐敗的法塔赫，但他們卻選出拒絕承認以色列及奧斯陸和議的哈馬斯。
然而， 我們要求哈馬斯承認的「以色列」，究竟是指什麼？1948 年的以色列？1967 中東戰爭後的以色列？還是那個在阿拉伯土地上興建猶太殖民區、並佔領巴勒斯坦22%土地的以色列？
巴人高官廁所竟有金水龍頭
阿巴斯被西方傳媒稱為「溫和」領袖，一直是西方忠實的「警察」。他寫了一部600頁關於1993 年奧斯陸和議的著作，當中可以隻字不提「（以色列）佔領」。他是我們西方可信任的「領袖」，因為他結領帶、出入白宮，言談總是「啱聽」。
巴人選出哈馬斯捨棄法塔赫，並非因為他們要成立伊斯蘭共和國，而是因為厭倦腐敗的法塔赫及巴人自治政府。多年前，我在一名巴人自治政府官員寓所洗手間內看到鑲金水龍頭，正是那些鑲金水龍頭令法塔赫輸掉選舉。腐敗一直是阿拉伯世界的腫瘤，巴人希望終止它，才投哈馬斯一票。但我們「智慧絕頂」、「善良絕頂」的西方，卻因他們行使投票權而決定制裁他們、令他們捱餓。或者，我們該賞賜巴勒斯坦一個歐盟會籍，好讓他們選出適當的人選？
同樣的故事在區內不斷上演。就算阿富汗總統卡爾扎伊政府養着軍閥及毒䲷，我們仍然支持他。埃及總統穆巴拉克的劊子手向穆斯林兄弟會政要施酷刑，但我們對他情有獨鍾。利比亞卡扎菲派出爪牙到國外行刺反對者，但因為現時他在「反恐戰」中跟西方同一陣線，所以我們欣然接受其「民主」。約旦君主專制國王阿卜杜拉，以至波斯灣所有王子和酋長都受到我們歡迎，尤其是那些收取西方軍火商巨額賄賂的。若阿拉伯百姓及伊朗人能夠支持「我們的」國王及王子，那中東就容易控制得多。
一言蔽之，關鍵就在於控制。這亦是為何一些領袖會得到我們支持，一些則遭我們捨棄。現在加沙已屬於哈馬斯，那西方該如何？跟那些「恩將仇報」的巴人談判？還是僅承認西岸的巴勒斯坦，而漠視加沙民選的哈馬斯？
為何老是不受「文明西方」控制？
在西方眼中，若敘利亞總統不是阿薩德、伊朗總統不是內賈德、黎巴嫩就像我們那些後院民主小國如比利時和盧森堡，那就好了，但那些中東人卻老是選出「錯誤」的人、喜歡「錯誤」的人，行事一點也一不像我們這些「文明的西方人」。那我們該怎辦？支持（以軍）重新佔領加沙？可以肯定，我們不會批評以色列啊！我們會繼續支持那些國王、總統，直至整個地區在我們眼前爆破，然後我們會說：他們不值得我們犧牲及愛護，一如我們現在提及伊拉克人所說的一樣。
我們該如何處理一個民選政府發動的「政變」？英國《獨立報》資深中東問題記者
Robert Fisk』
星期日, 6月 10, 2007
愚民自肥的證據
《星島日報》
政府近月連番宣布公務員加薪喜訊，卻令社福界為釐定薪酬感頭痛不已。全港有逾三百二十多家社福機構超過九千名專業社工，薪酬差距進一步擴大，社署及資助機構入職薪金較非資助機構社工高出七成三，而現職的資助機構社工亦有加薪壓力。香港社會服務聯會擔心，專業社工「同工不同酬」情況嚴重 .......
黃錦文指出，公務員薪酬水平調查訂定新入職社工薪酬幾級跳，社署及受資助機構新入職社工，薪酬將由目前一萬七千一百四十五元(第十三點)，連跳五級至二萬一千九百元(第十八點)，起薪點激升兩成八。
與市場上社福機構比較，社聯去年九月最新的社福界薪酬水平調查結果發現，新入職社工起薪點為一萬二千六百九十元；具專業服務的管理經驗社工，薪酬平均有二萬二千九百九十元。
換言之，社福機構與社署社工入職薪酬早已相差三成半，將來政府提升入職起薪點後，距離進一步拉遠達七成三。
「將來社署一個新入職社工薪酬，等於社福機構內一個已做了七年、月入近二萬二千九百元的管理職級社工，眼見師妹入職薪酬遠遠高過自己，真是不知可以怎樣？」......
而且，政府自○一年起實施連串資源增值及削資措施，整筆撥款制度下，政府對受資助機構撥款，一直低於基準金額達百分之九點三，黃錦文指，每年對資助機構撥款逾六十億元，當中八成支付員工薪酬，社福機構早年與政府共渡時艱至今，一直未見重撥這筆差額，估計高達六億元。........
政府近月連番宣布公務員加薪喜訊，卻令社福界為釐定薪酬感頭痛不已。全港有逾三百二十多家社福機構超過九千名專業社工，薪酬差距進一步擴大，社署及資助機構入職薪金較非資助機構社工高出七成三，而現職的資助機構社工亦有加薪壓力。香港社會服務聯會擔心，專業社工「同工不同酬」情況嚴重 .......
黃錦文指出，公務員薪酬水平調查訂定新入職社工薪酬幾級跳，社署及受資助機構新入職社工，薪酬將由目前一萬七千一百四十五元(第十三點)，連跳五級至二萬一千九百元(第十八點)，起薪點激升兩成八。
與市場上社福機構比較，社聯去年九月最新的社福界薪酬水平調查結果發現，新入職社工起薪點為一萬二千六百九十元；具專業服務的管理經驗社工，薪酬平均有二萬二千九百九十元。
換言之，社福機構與社署社工入職薪酬早已相差三成半，將來政府提升入職起薪點後，距離進一步拉遠達七成三。
「將來社署一個新入職社工薪酬，等於社福機構內一個已做了七年、月入近二萬二千九百元的管理職級社工，眼見師妹入職薪酬遠遠高過自己，真是不知可以怎樣？」......
而且，政府自○一年起實施連串資源增值及削資措施，整筆撥款制度下，政府對受資助機構撥款，一直低於基準金額達百分之九點三，黃錦文指，每年對資助機構撥款逾六十億元，當中八成支付員工薪酬，社福機構早年與政府共渡時艱至今，一直未見重撥這筆差額，估計高達六億元。........
星期五, 6月 08, 2007
真有司法獨立嗎?
這是今天林行止專欄一部份的節錄；
"吳邦國把《基本法》解釋為「中國授予香港多少權力香港就有多少權力」的「授權法」，對於人生目的在求溫飽和牟利，視民主選舉、政治權利「有則最佳無亦何妨」...... 因此，從現實角度─包括長期殖民教育下香港人大都沒有政治理想、....... 至於名義上仍獨立於行政機關的司法部門，在遇到關係國家利益問題時，最終可能也不得不聽命於直接接受北京指示的行政長官，無法作出獨立判決！英國留給香港最寶貴的法制已有名無實，這是自由香港輾轉淪落的開始。"
甚麼是"政治理想"，"政治理想"通常都是政客扇動群众奪取權力的一種口號，我們可否以更具体的語言來說明想爭取的東西，我一向視民主選舉為工具，事實上香港人要爭取應該是；社會自由、繁榮、公平、法治、及尊重個人。
換一個角度看，林先生也是『長期殖民教育下香港人』之一，在英國主子的長期燻途下，英國人說的司法獨立在遇到關係國家利益問題時也是神聖不可侵犯，事實上英美也是講一套做一套，甚至不在遇到關係國家利益而只是遇到當權者和軍火商利益時，司法便不再獨立，以下是今日的另一新聞；
英軍火商155億賄沙特親王 國家安全理由 貝理雅拒再查
《經濟日報綜合報道》英國軍火醜聞愈揭愈臭，國內最大軍火公司英國航太系統公司（BAE Systems）被揭在過去20年，以高達10億英鎊（約155億港元）賄賂曾任沙特阿拉伯駐美國大使的班達爾˙本˙蘇丹親王（Prince Bandar bin Sultan），換取實現價值400億英鎊（約6,192億港元）的軍火交易。
由於事件涉及長達至少10年的非法利益輸送，令牽涉其中的英國、美國及沙特阿拉伯、英國前保守黨政府及現任工黨政府陷入尷尬局面。目前身在德國參加八國峰會的英國首相貝理雅，再次以國家安全及保住數千名受僱於BAE工人飯碗為由，堅拒重新展開調查。
....... 英美國家元首包括戴卓爾夫人（Margaret Thatcher）、貝理雅、及美國已故總統列根（Ronald Reagan）對此完全知情。
....... 正當英國「嚴重欺詐辦公室」（Serious Fraud Office）調查上述軍火交易發現懷疑非法賄款之際，去年12月，司法部長戈德史密斯（Lord Goldsmith）勒令終止了調查，惹來各方的抨擊。
英國廣播公司商業新聞編輯Robert Peston在網誌中作出分析，更引述消息人士指出，涉案各方均不認為付出及收受回佣有問題，但非常擔心事件曝光會令沙特反感，影響下周BAE與沙特簽署價值200億英鎊（約3,096億港元）戰機定單。
"吳邦國把《基本法》解釋為「中國授予香港多少權力香港就有多少權力」的「授權法」，對於人生目的在求溫飽和牟利，視民主選舉、政治權利「有則最佳無亦何妨」...... 因此，從現實角度─包括長期殖民教育下香港人大都沒有政治理想、....... 至於名義上仍獨立於行政機關的司法部門，在遇到關係國家利益問題時，最終可能也不得不聽命於直接接受北京指示的行政長官，無法作出獨立判決！英國留給香港最寶貴的法制已有名無實，這是自由香港輾轉淪落的開始。"
甚麼是"政治理想"，"政治理想"通常都是政客扇動群众奪取權力的一種口號，我們可否以更具体的語言來說明想爭取的東西，我一向視民主選舉為工具，事實上香港人要爭取應該是；社會自由、繁榮、公平、法治、及尊重個人。
換一個角度看，林先生也是『長期殖民教育下香港人』之一，在英國主子的長期燻途下，英國人說的司法獨立在遇到關係國家利益問題時也是神聖不可侵犯，事實上英美也是講一套做一套，甚至不在遇到關係國家利益而只是遇到當權者和軍火商利益時，司法便不再獨立，以下是今日的另一新聞；
英軍火商155億賄沙特親王 國家安全理由 貝理雅拒再查
《經濟日報綜合報道》英國軍火醜聞愈揭愈臭，國內最大軍火公司英國航太系統公司（BAE Systems）被揭在過去20年，以高達10億英鎊（約155億港元）賄賂曾任沙特阿拉伯駐美國大使的班達爾˙本˙蘇丹親王（Prince Bandar bin Sultan），換取實現價值400億英鎊（約6,192億港元）的軍火交易。
由於事件涉及長達至少10年的非法利益輸送，令牽涉其中的英國、美國及沙特阿拉伯、英國前保守黨政府及現任工黨政府陷入尷尬局面。目前身在德國參加八國峰會的英國首相貝理雅，再次以國家安全及保住數千名受僱於BAE工人飯碗為由，堅拒重新展開調查。
....... 英美國家元首包括戴卓爾夫人（Margaret Thatcher）、貝理雅、及美國已故總統列根（Ronald Reagan）對此完全知情。
....... 正當英國「嚴重欺詐辦公室」（Serious Fraud Office）調查上述軍火交易發現懷疑非法賄款之際，去年12月，司法部長戈德史密斯（Lord Goldsmith）勒令終止了調查，惹來各方的抨擊。
英國廣播公司商業新聞編輯Robert Peston在網誌中作出分析，更引述消息人士指出，涉案各方均不認為付出及收受回佣有問題，但非常擔心事件曝光會令沙特反感，影響下周BAE與沙特簽署價值200億英鎊（約3,096億港元）戰機定單。
星期二, 6月 05, 2007
The Long-term View - Summary
以下是這部份的一些扼要；
1. Market declines are great opportunities to buy stocks in companies you like.
2. Try to predict the direction of the market over one or two years is impossible.
3. The biggest winners are surprises (Lynch 也不能準確知道那間公司股價增長最快，所以要分散投資)
4. You can make serious money be compounding a series of 20-30 percent gains in stalwarts
5. Stalwarts with heavy institutional ownership and lots of Wall Street coverage that have outperformed the market and are overpriced are due for a rest or a decline.
6. Selling an outstanding fast grower because its stock seems slightly overpriced is a losing technique.
7. Don't become so attached to a winner that complacency sets in and you stop monitoring the story.
8. By careful pruning and rotation based on fundamentals, you can improve your results. When stocks are out of line with reality and better alternatives exist, sell them and switch into something else.
9. When favorable cards turn up, add your bet, and vice versa. (favorable card 應是指 story line, fundaments 而不是股價)
10. You don't have to "kiss all the girls." (Lynch 也會錯失機會，但他的投資組合也有十分好的成績)
1. Market declines are great opportunities to buy stocks in companies you like.
2. Try to predict the direction of the market over one or two years is impossible.
3. The biggest winners are surprises (Lynch 也不能準確知道那間公司股價增長最快，所以要分散投資)
4. You can make serious money be compounding a series of 20-30 percent gains in stalwarts
5. Stalwarts with heavy institutional ownership and lots of Wall Street coverage that have outperformed the market and are overpriced are due for a rest or a decline.
6. Selling an outstanding fast grower because its stock seems slightly overpriced is a losing technique.
7. Don't become so attached to a winner that complacency sets in and you stop monitoring the story.
8. By careful pruning and rotation based on fundamentals, you can improve your results. When stocks are out of line with reality and better alternatives exist, sell them and switch into something else.
9. When favorable cards turn up, add your bet, and vice versa. (favorable card 應是指 story line, fundaments 而不是股價)
10. You don't have to "kiss all the girls." (Lynch 也會錯失機會，但他的投資組合也有十分好的成績)
星期一, 6月 04, 2007
星期六, 6月 02, 2007
The Long-term View - When to Sell
Lynch 並不讚成依據巿况賣買股票，他提出可以跟據公司分類的不同情况賣出股票；
SLOW GROWER
1. When there's been a 30-50 percent appreciation.
2. When the fundamentals have deteriorated.
3. Lost market share for two consecutive years
4. No new products
STALWART
1. If the p/e strays too far beyound the normal range
2. No officers or directors have bought shares in the last year
3. A major division that contributes 25 percent of earnings is vulnerable to an economic slump tha's taking place.
4. The company's growth rate has been slowing down, and though it's been maintaining profits by cutting costs, future cost-cutting opportunities are limited.
CYCLICAL
1. Other than at the end of the cycle (who knows), the best time to sell a cyclical is when something has actually started to go wrong. Costs has started to rise. Existing plants are operating at full capacity. Inventories are building up.
2. Final demand for the product is slowing down.
3. The company has doubled its capital spending to build a fancy new plant.
4. p/e gets smaller near the end.
FAST GROWER
1. The trick is not to lose the potential tenbagger.
2. p/e gets bigger near the end.
3. Same store sales are down 3 percent in the last quarter.
4. New store results are disappointing.
5. Two top executives and serveral key employees leave to join a rival firm.
TURNAROUND
1. Debt rose significantly.
2. Inventories are rising twice the rate of sales growth.
3. The company's leading customer is suffering from a slowdown in its own sales
4. Sell after it's turned around or reclassify the stock.
ASSET PLAY
1. The best idea is to wait for the raider as long as the company isn't reducing the value of the assets.
2. The company will issue 10 percent more shares to help finance a diversification program.
3. Dvision that was expected to be sold for $20 million only brings $12 million in the actual sale.
SLOW GROWER
1. When there's been a 30-50 percent appreciation.
2. When the fundamentals have deteriorated.
3. Lost market share for two consecutive years
4. No new products
STALWART
1. If the p/e strays too far beyound the normal range
2. No officers or directors have bought shares in the last year
3. A major division that contributes 25 percent of earnings is vulnerable to an economic slump tha's taking place.
4. The company's growth rate has been slowing down, and though it's been maintaining profits by cutting costs, future cost-cutting opportunities are limited.
CYCLICAL
1. Other than at the end of the cycle (who knows), the best time to sell a cyclical is when something has actually started to go wrong. Costs has started to rise. Existing plants are operating at full capacity. Inventories are building up.
2. Final demand for the product is slowing down.
3. The company has doubled its capital spending to build a fancy new plant.
4. p/e gets smaller near the end.
FAST GROWER
1. The trick is not to lose the potential tenbagger.
2. p/e gets bigger near the end.
3. Same store sales are down 3 percent in the last quarter.
4. New store results are disappointing.
5. Two top executives and serveral key employees leave to join a rival firm.
TURNAROUND
1. Debt rose significantly.
2. Inventories are rising twice the rate of sales growth.
3. The company's leading customer is suffering from a slowdown in its own sales
4. Sell after it's turned around or reclassify the stock.
ASSET PLAY
1. The best idea is to wait for the raider as long as the company isn't reducing the value of the assets.
2. The company will issue 10 percent more shares to help finance a diversification program.
3. Dvision that was expected to be sold for $20 million only brings $12 million in the actual sale.
The Long-term View - Part 1
這部份主要介紹投資組合管理的概念，何時買入賣出，Lynch 並不贊成經常賣出買入，他賺最多的股票通常都持有三到四年。
Lynch 基本上贊成分散投資，他管理的基金就有超過一千間公司，對於小投資組合，他就認為可持有三至十間公司，他同時指出以下要點；
1. It's best to own as many stocks as there are situation in which: (a) you've got an edge: and (b) you've uncovered an exciting prospect that passes all the tests of research.
2. There's no use diversitying into unknown companies just for the sake of diversity.
3. If you are looking for tenbaggers, the more stocks you own the more likely that one of them will become tenbaggers.
4. The more stocks you own, the more flexibility you have to rotate funds between them.
5. Spreading your money among several categries of stocks is another way to minimize downside risk.
- slow growers are low-risk, low-gain
- stalwarts are low-risk, moderate gain
- cyclicals may be low-risk and high-gain or high-risk and low-gain, depending on how adept you are at anticipating cycles
- faster growers are high-risk, high-gain
- turnaround are high-risk, high-gain
6. A price drop in a good stock is only a tragedy if you sell at that price and never buy more. A price drop is an opportunity to load up on bargains.
7. detest "stop orders," those automatic bailouts at a predetermined price.
8. To rotate in and out of stocks depending on what has happended to the price as it relates to the story.
9. Rotate to other stalwart if a stalwart has gone up 40% and nothing wonderful has happened with the company.
10. Keep fast growers as long as earnings are growing and the expansion is continuing. Rotate to other fast grower if a fast grower's story begins to sound dubious or there's other better fast grower.
Lynch 基本上贊成分散投資，他管理的基金就有超過一千間公司，對於小投資組合，他就認為可持有三至十間公司，他同時指出以下要點；
1. It's best to own as many stocks as there are situation in which: (a) you've got an edge: and (b) you've uncovered an exciting prospect that passes all the tests of research.
2. There's no use diversitying into unknown companies just for the sake of diversity.
3. If you are looking for tenbaggers, the more stocks you own the more likely that one of them will become tenbaggers.
4. The more stocks you own, the more flexibility you have to rotate funds between them.
5. Spreading your money among several categries of stocks is another way to minimize downside risk.
- slow growers are low-risk, low-gain
- stalwarts are low-risk, moderate gain
- cyclicals may be low-risk and high-gain or high-risk and low-gain, depending on how adept you are at anticipating cycles
- faster growers are high-risk, high-gain
- turnaround are high-risk, high-gain
6. A price drop in a good stock is only a tragedy if you sell at that price and never buy more. A price drop is an opportunity to load up on bargains.
7. detest "stop orders," those automatic bailouts at a predetermined price.
8. To rotate in and out of stocks depending on what has happended to the price as it relates to the story.
9. Rotate to other stalwart if a stalwart has gone up 40% and nothing wonderful has happened with the company.
10. Keep fast growers as long as earnings are growing and the expansion is continuing. Rotate to other fast grower if a fast grower's story begins to sound dubious or there's other better fast grower.
星期五, 6月 01, 2007
Picking Winners - Part 5
Lynch 在這部份介紹了選擇公司的一些重點，以下是這部份的一些扼要；
1. Understand the nature of the companies you own and the specific reasons for holding the stock.
2. By putting your stocks into categories you'll have a better idea of what to expect from them.
3. Carefully consider the p/e ratio. If the stock is grossly over-priced, even if everything else goes right, you won't make any money.
4. Find a story line to follow as a way of monitoring a company's progress.
5. Look for small companies that are already profitable and have proven that their concept can be replicated.
6. Avoid hot stocks in hot industries.
7. It's better to miss the first move in a stock and wait to see if a company's plans are working out.
8. Moderately fast growers (20 to 25 percent) in nongrowth industries are ideal investments.
9. A lot of money can be made when a troubled company turns around.
10. Carefully consider the p/e ratio. If the stock is grossly over-priced, even if everything else goes right, you won't make any money.
11. Be patient. Watched stock never boils.
12. When in doubt, tune in later.
1. Understand the nature of the companies you own and the specific reasons for holding the stock.
2. By putting your stocks into categories you'll have a better idea of what to expect from them.
3. Carefully consider the p/e ratio. If the stock is grossly over-priced, even if everything else goes right, you won't make any money.
4. Find a story line to follow as a way of monitoring a company's progress.
5. Look for small companies that are already profitable and have proven that their concept can be replicated.
6. Avoid hot stocks in hot industries.
7. It's better to miss the first move in a stock and wait to see if a company's plans are working out.
8. Moderately fast growers (20 to 25 percent) in nongrowth industries are ideal investments.
9. A lot of money can be made when a troubled company turns around.
10. Carefully consider the p/e ratio. If the stock is grossly over-priced, even if everything else goes right, you won't make any money.
11. Be patient. Watched stock never boils.
12. When in doubt, tune in later.
Picking Winners - Part 4
每一類公司要留意的地方；
STALWARTS
1. The key issue is price, and the p/e ratio will tell you whether you are paying too much.
2. Check the company's long term growth rate, and whether it has kept up the same momentum in recent years.
3. See how the company has fared during previous recessions and market drops.
CYCLICALS
1. Keep a close watch on inventories, and the supply-demand relationship. Watch for new entrants which is usually a dangerous development.
2. Anticipate a shrinking p/e multiple over time as business recovers and investors look ahead of the end of cycle, when peak earnings are achieved.
FAST GROWERS
1. What the growth rate in earnings has been in recent years. (Lynch's favourites are the ones in the 20 to 25 percent range. Company growing faster than 25% normally found in hot industries)
2. The company has duplicated its successes in more than one city or town, to prove that expansion will work.
3. The company still has room to grow.
4. Whether the stock is selling at a p/e ratio at or near the growth rate.
TURNAROUND
1. Can the company survive a raid by its creditors?
2. How is the company supposed to be turning around?
ASSEST PLAYS
1. What's the value of the assets? Are there any hidden assets?
2. Is the company taking on new debt, making the assets less valuable?
STALWARTS
1. The key issue is price, and the p/e ratio will tell you whether you are paying too much.
2. Check the company's long term growth rate, and whether it has kept up the same momentum in recent years.
3. See how the company has fared during previous recessions and market drops.
CYCLICALS
1. Keep a close watch on inventories, and the supply-demand relationship. Watch for new entrants which is usually a dangerous development.
2. Anticipate a shrinking p/e multiple over time as business recovers and investors look ahead of the end of cycle, when peak earnings are achieved.
FAST GROWERS
1. What the growth rate in earnings has been in recent years. (Lynch's favourites are the ones in the 20 to 25 percent range. Company growing faster than 25% normally found in hot industries)
2. The company has duplicated its successes in more than one city or town, to prove that expansion will work.
3. The company still has room to grow.
4. Whether the stock is selling at a p/e ratio at or near the growth rate.
TURNAROUND
1. Can the company survive a raid by its creditors?
2. How is the company supposed to be turning around?
ASSEST PLAYS
1. What's the value of the assets? Are there any hidden assets?
2. Is the company taking on new debt, making the assets less valuable?
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